- So once in every 625 spins of this hypothetical machine, you’ll hit your set of five identical symbols for the jackpot. Now if the jackpot payout was $625, the machine would be a break-even proposition, as on average you’d pay $1 624 times without winning anything, and then you’d hit once in every 625 spins for the $625 prize, breaking even overall.
- Every spin on a slot machine is random, so it doesn't matter how long it's been since the last jackpot hit. The jackpot never gets more likely to hit. If the odds of hitting a jackpot on one spin are 1 in 250,000, then they're always 1 in 250,000, whether the last jackpot hit last year or five minutes ago.
Progressive jackpot games are some of the most popular, both online and at land-based casinos. What sets these apart from regular games is the possibility of the player walking away with a major win from a 'pot' of funds that builds up over time. Jun 03, 2019 Myth: Slot machines are programmed to pay off a particular percentage of money bet.Thus, after a jackpot is hit the machine will tighten up to get back in balance. On the other hand, when a jackpot has not been hit for a long time it is overdue and more likely to hit.
GeneD
Question: Many slot machines offer a disproportionately higher return on the jackpot combination when the maximum size bet is played. Do they also decrease the odds of hitting the jackpot combination when the maximum bet is played?
Additional information: My wife cannot afford to play the maximum bet, but when she hits the jackpot combinations, she thinks she missed out. I keep telling her that I believe the odds of hitting those combinations would significantly decrease if she paid the maximum, but she doesn’t believe me. In statistics terminology, it would make sense to maintain the same expected return (payout multiplied by probability), in order to obtain the same overall percent payback for different players (although I doubt they are required to maintain such consistency). Using this assumption, if the payout increases disproportionately relative to the size of the bet, the probability would have to decrease. This would also be a good way for the casino to dupe players into increasing their bets to the maximum.
Additional information: My wife cannot afford to play the maximum bet, but when she hits the jackpot combinations, she thinks she missed out. I keep telling her that I believe the odds of hitting those combinations would significantly decrease if she paid the maximum, but she doesn’t believe me. In statistics terminology, it would make sense to maintain the same expected return (payout multiplied by probability), in order to obtain the same overall percent payback for different players (although I doubt they are required to maintain such consistency). Using this assumption, if the payout increases disproportionately relative to the size of the bet, the probability would have to decrease. This would also be a good way for the casino to dupe players into increasing their bets to the maximum.
duckmankilla
Here's my interpretation of how slots work.
Slot machines are pegged to payout at a certain % by a computer chip. This percentage does not alter due to bet size at any time, so increasing your bet is essentially just losing your money faster. Higher denomination machines are typically programmed to payback a higher % than lower denomination ones, so that a $.25 machine will pay better than a $.05 machine which will pay better than a $.01 machine.
Regardless of bet size, even with the inflated jackpots for max bet, the expected payback remains the same on slot machines to the best of my knowledge. I don't think it's like video poker where betting max bet inflates jackpot size and increases expected value, but i'm not 100% sure.
Slot machines are pegged to payout at a certain % by a computer chip. This percentage does not alter due to bet size at any time, so increasing your bet is essentially just losing your money faster. Higher denomination machines are typically programmed to payback a higher % than lower denomination ones, so that a $.25 machine will pay better than a $.05 machine which will pay better than a $.01 machine.
Regardless of bet size, even with the inflated jackpots for max bet, the expected payback remains the same on slot machines to the best of my knowledge. I don't think it's like video poker where betting max bet inflates jackpot size and increases expected value, but i'm not 100% sure.
FleaStiff
So far I would say each of these posters is wrong or else I am misunderstanding what they are saying.
As to MAX COIN.. Most, but not all, slot machines offer inducements for players to play max coin but read the payout table to be sure that final coin actually buys you something. However, whether you put in Minimum Coin, Maximum Coin or Something in between, once you hit that little red button.. its all up to the random number generator and the random number generator just goes along and does its thing with no knowledge at all about how many coins are in there or whose player card it is or if they've been tipping the waitress or not. So the EVENT is not influenced by the number of coins, only the payment for that event.
Expected payback? You mean each and every press of the little red button has to be a certain expectation?
The general rule is that a higher denomination machine returns a greater percentage, yes, but going to max coin on a lower denomination has to be compared. Its amount bet times expectation.
As to MAX COIN.. Most, but not all, slot machines offer inducements for players to play max coin but read the payout table to be sure that final coin actually buys you something. However, whether you put in Minimum Coin, Maximum Coin or Something in between, once you hit that little red button.. its all up to the random number generator and the random number generator just goes along and does its thing with no knowledge at all about how many coins are in there or whose player card it is or if they've been tipping the waitress or not. So the EVENT is not influenced by the number of coins, only the payment for that event.
Expected payback? You mean each and every press of the little red button has to be a certain expectation?
The general rule is that a higher denomination machine returns a greater percentage, yes, but going to max coin on a lower denomination has to be compared. Its amount bet times expectation.
CrystalMath
The odds do not change when you bet max. I believe that some jurisdictions require identical odds. I've never, out of hundreds of games, seen a game that behaves differently.
pacomartin
The odds do not change when you bet max. I believe that some jurisdictions require identical odds. I've never, out of hundreds of games, seen a game that behaves differently.
There would be no advantage for a gamemaker to do that kind of manipulation. The probability of hitting the jackpot is so low, that the manufacturer is free to riase the payout without changing the EV of the game very much.
It is very popular for the machines to be designed so that the player to be denied an entire class of high payouts if he does not put in max coin. Even though the house edge may not be that much worse, the player will eventually see hit a case where he would have been paid a much higher payout if he had more coins.
But every machine design can honestly say it has a lower house edge if you play more coins. It doesn't say how much lower.
An example from a real machine is 8.04% HA for 1 coin, and 7.48% and 7.30% for 2 or 3 coins.
GeneD
Thank you all for your responses, but I am still not convinced that my theory is wrong. I may not have explained the problem adequately, and perhaps an example will be helpful. I could make up an example, but I would rather make it as realistic as possible. Next time I am in the casino, I will try to find a machine with the type of payouts I am talking about, and post an example.
One thing I will say now is that I think more of the average payout is related to the jackpots than you might think. For example, one local casino (Hollywood, FL) states that it pays out 94% of the bets wagered (i.e. a house advantage of 6%). I would conjecture that 5% or 10% if that payout is related to the jackpots. If it was really small – say 1% – then you would expect that, on the average, your credits would decrease by only $7 for every $100 you wager (such as 100 pulls on a $1 machine). But I will bet your average losses are much higher than that, unless of course, you hit a big win. This is because a significant portion of the 94% payback is related to the big wins.
I may be confusing the issue by using the word “jackpot”. I am not talking about the huge progressive jackpots of 100’s of thousands or millions that are rarely ever paid, but rather the smaller payouts of $1,000 to $10,000 that you might find on nickel and quarter machines. My wife, who only plays slots 5 to 10 hours a week, hits 3 or 4 of these “jackpots” every year. I know because I have to claim them on our tax return. Maybe I should call them 'big wins' rather than 'jackpots'?
Our next casino trip is later this week, so I should have a decent example to post sometime this weekend. If I am right about this, it is very important for players (such as my wife) to understand, so they don’t get duped into losing a lot of money, especially mine!
One thing I will say now is that I think more of the average payout is related to the jackpots than you might think. For example, one local casino (Hollywood, FL) states that it pays out 94% of the bets wagered (i.e. a house advantage of 6%). I would conjecture that 5% or 10% if that payout is related to the jackpots. If it was really small – say 1% – then you would expect that, on the average, your credits would decrease by only $7 for every $100 you wager (such as 100 pulls on a $1 machine). But I will bet your average losses are much higher than that, unless of course, you hit a big win. This is because a significant portion of the 94% payback is related to the big wins.
I may be confusing the issue by using the word “jackpot”. I am not talking about the huge progressive jackpots of 100’s of thousands or millions that are rarely ever paid, but rather the smaller payouts of $1,000 to $10,000 that you might find on nickel and quarter machines. My wife, who only plays slots 5 to 10 hours a week, hits 3 or 4 of these “jackpots” every year. I know because I have to claim them on our tax return. Maybe I should call them 'big wins' rather than 'jackpots'?
Our next casino trip is later this week, so I should have a decent example to post sometime this weekend. If I am right about this, it is very important for players (such as my wife) to understand, so they don’t get duped into losing a lot of money, especially mine!
cardcounter
Question: Many slot machines offer a disproportionately higher return on the jackpot combination when the maximum size bet is played. Do they also decrease the odds of hitting the jackpot combination when the maximum bet is played?
Additional information: My wife cannot afford to play the maximum bet, but when she hits the jackpot combinations, she thinks she missed out. I keep telling her that I believe the odds of hitting those combinations would significantly decrease if she paid the maximum, but she doesn’t believe me. In statistics terminology, it would make sense to maintain the same expected return (payout multiplied by probability), in order to obtain the same overall percent payback for different players (although I doubt they are required to maintain such consistency). Using this assumption, if the payout increases disproportionately relative to the size of the bet, the probability would have to decrease. This would also be a good way for the casino to dupe players into increasing their bets to the maximum.
Additional information: My wife cannot afford to play the maximum bet, but when she hits the jackpot combinations, she thinks she missed out. I keep telling her that I believe the odds of hitting those combinations would significantly decrease if she paid the maximum, but she doesn’t believe me. In statistics terminology, it would make sense to maintain the same expected return (payout multiplied by probability), in order to obtain the same overall percent payback for different players (although I doubt they are required to maintain such consistency). Using this assumption, if the payout increases disproportionately relative to the size of the bet, the probability would have to decrease. This would also be a good way for the casino to dupe players into increasing their bets to the maximum.
Your wife is right she did miss out on a bigger jackpot for not playing the maximum coins. The odds of hitting the jackpot do not change weather if she bets 1 coin or 2 but the payout changes. Casinos offer better payouts for max coins because they want to encourage people to bet the max. The odds could go from 96% payback to a 97 or 98% payback from minimum to max coins.
Understanding slot machines is easy. They’re basically just a giant math equation. Casinos are so open about slot machines, they publish their own payback percentages in industry publications, and they often brag about the percentage that their machines pay back in a given month or year.
The most important odds to understand in slot machine gambling are a machine’s hit frequency and payback percentage. It’s impossible to ascertain the specific odds of winning on a given slot machine in today’s casinos, though. Gone are the days of 3 reels with 10 symbols per reel, when calculating the odds of hitting a given jackpot took little more than some back of the napkin multiplication. Still, hit frequency and percentage are easy to understand, and that information is easy to find.
Basic Slot Machine Odds
Now that random number generators power slot machines, the odds are more complicated. In the old days, figuring out your odds of winning on a slot machine meant dividing the total number of symbols by 1. If a slot has 3 reels and 10 symbols on each reel, the odds of one particular symbol appearing on the machine would be 9 to 1, or 9 losing symbols and 1 winning symbol. To figure out the odds of hitting 3 particular symbols (for a jackpot), multiply your chances of landing one symbol three times by itself. You have a 1/10 chance of pulling up a particular symbol. The odds of pulling up a given 3 reel combination are 1/1000. That can also be expressed as 999 to 1.
Back to the random number generator: you just can’t use simple multiplication to figure slot machine odds any more. Modern slot machines contain so many different symbols, reels, and winning combinations, that a purely mathematical approach is out of most people’s reach. Understanding a slot machine’s hit frequency and payback percentage are important because we can’t just sit there and figure out our odds by looking at the machine.
For example, with a modern slot machine, one symbol might appear one out of every twenty spins. A second symbol might appear one out of every ten spins. And a third symbol might be set to appear one out of every fifty spins. But there’s no way to determine the settings unless you have access to the slot machine’s PAR sheet, which is what sets these specifications in the random number generator program.
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Slot Machine Hit Frequency
The term hit frequency applied to slot machines means an informed estimate of the ratio of losses to wins on a given machine. As the number of wins in the ratio increases, so does the slot’s hit frequency rate. Because of the variety of ways to win on modern machines, figuring out a slot’s hit frequency is somewhere between taking a mathematical average and making a guess.
One way to estimate a slot machine’s hit frequency is to play the machine 100 times and track the results. The cheapest way to do this is to find a nickel machine, pull the lever 100 times, and work out the ratio the hard way. Make a mark for every time during those 100 spins that you win, any win big or small.
Www.clubonline. What’s a good hit frequency? That depends on how much you’re looking to win and what kind of machine you’re playing, but most slot gamers consider any machine that pays out less than 10% of the time a bad machine.
To further complicate hit frequency, and to get a better overall idea of a machine’s odds, you can factor in the amount of winnings. Slot machines are often designed to pay out a lot of small winnings, so a hit frequency of 50% may seem like a loose slot machine, but if you’re only winning tiny amounts, you may want to move on down the line. On the other side of the coin, if a slot machine pays out only 9 or 10 times per 100 spins, but you win a ton of credits, you may be tempted to stay and press your luck for the big jackpots.
Slot Machine Returns
When you hear people talk about a slot machine’s return, they are referring to the percentage of money paid out by the machine compared to the amount of cash a gambler put into it. People who play slots at the tournament level keep track of these numbers and form strategies based on which machines to play at a given casino property.
To work out a return, you just need to do a little simple math. If you pumped $100 into a slot machine and at the end you’ve won $90 back, you just got a slot machine return of 90%. The casino kept $10 of your money for your troubles, but if that $100 kept you playing for an hour, you just had an hour’s entertainment for $10. That’s cheaper than going to the movies.
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If you’re just a casual slot gamer, you don’t really need to keep track of slot machine returns. Casinos report their slot machine returns to local governments in most gambling jurisdictions, and those details and other figures are available to the general public. An easy way to stay on top of machine returns is to subscribe to Casino Player magazine or Strictly Slots magazine, where these numbers are published.
Slot Machine Payback Percentage
A final note on slot machine odds: don’t get too hung up on a slot machine’s payback percentage. Payback percentages are essentially made-up numbers, theoretical figures that make a guess about how much a particular machine will pay back to a gambler over time.
The trouble with payback percentage figures is that they’re developed from a pool of infinite spins. Think of payback percentage as slot machine returns in a vacuum. These numbers are used by game designers and casino managers and are not meant to inform gambling.
Slot Machine Jackpot Videos
These numbers come from game manufacturers, who program a machine to return a theoretical amount to the customer. If a game designer advertises a slot’s payback at 95%, all that means is that over an infinite amount of time, the slot will pay back 95 cents for every dollar that is put in.
Watch Slot Machine Jackpots
If you finished this article more confused than when you started, you’re in good company. Slot machines are straightforward gambling devices, little more than random numbers activated by a gambler. Still, modern technology has muddied the waters of actual slot machine probabilities, placing an emphasis on a game’s design and features rather than advertising it as a particularly player friendly machine.
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Odds On Slots Machine
Just because a game designer produces a machine that is programmed to pay back 90% of money put in doesn’t mean that you will always make $90 for every $100 gambled. At the same time, understanding slot machine odds and hit frequency can inform your choice of casinos.